Census Counts and the Heart of Texas Region

Much of what the 2010 Census will tell us about the Heart of Texas is still unknown to us, as socioeconomic and other data has not yet been released. The population figures, however, are available – and they mostly tell us what we’ve been able to observe ourselves: namely, that the parts that are growing, keep growing, and the parts that aren’t growing, keep not growing.

The region’s population grew from 321,536 in 2000 to 349,273 in 2010 – a rate of growth of approximately .83% per year. The moderate growth contributes to economic vitality without placing excessive demands on existing infrastructure. (High population growth can lead to traffic congestion and stress water/wastewater capacity, among other issues.) A gentle rate of growth means the region can accommodate the new folks, and build its infrastructure to match, comfortably over time. At the same time, a slightly higher rate than this would still fall in the “comfortable” range – so we should continue to focus on attracting businesses and families to even the fastest-growing parts of the region.

Bosque County, which grew by 5.86%, has a 2010 population density of 18.41.
Falls County, which declined by 3.82%, has a 2010 population density of 23.23.
Freestone County, which grew by 10.91%, has a 2010 population density of 22.58.
Hill County, which grew by 8.56%, has a 2010 population density of 36.46.
Limestone County, which grew by 6.05%, has a 2010 population density of 25.73.
McLennan County, which grew by 10.02%, has a 2010 population density of 225.46.
The region as a whole grew by 8.63%, and has a population density of 62.95.

Let’s discuss the differing growth rates. For the most part, Heart of Texas counties with higher population densities had higher rates of population growth, and counties with lower population densities had lower rates of growth. Simply put, people like to go to where people already are – and where there are plenty of the amenities that come with those existing population densities. This pattern is consistent with statewide trends, so it’s not likely to change any time soon. This poses a challenge for sparsely-populated counties working to maintain quality of life.

McLennan County is growing at the highest rate; Limestone and Hill Counties have some slow growth; Bosque County has very little growth; and Freestone County is growing faster – and Falls County slower – than their densities would suggest. Hill and, to a lesser extent, Limestone Counties are working to achieve “escape velocity” – to achieve a density of people and amenities that will make those counties draws in themselves. They’re assisted in this by the expansion of development from the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex and the increased economic activity in McLennan County. Bosque County, on the other hand, is working to maintain enough growth and activity to continue its high quality of life.

Looking at the outliers, Freestone County has the second-lowest population density, but it enjoyed he highest rate of population growth in the region from 2000 to 2010 – 11%. Falls County’s population density falls in the middle at around 22 people per square mile, but its population declined by 3%. It may be no coincidence that these outliers also differ from the rest of the region economically: Freestone with higher economic values, and Falls County with lower ones.

While much is riding on Census numbers in terms of outside resources, the greatest impact on the Heart of Texas communities will come from what their growth rates mean in terms of local effects. Outside the City of Waco, Heart of Texas communities must compete for Federal block grant funds – so their populations may change the amount of matching funds they are required to contribute to projects if they’re funded, but they won’t affect their ordinary revenues much. On the other hand, for communities struggling to maintain population and attract and retain businesses, a modest amount of growth is essential to maintain the current standard of living.